Paper 3: 1,000 Additional Police
Proposal
1. This paper outlines issues in the justice sector associated with the flow-on effects of the additional 1,000 police, and recommends approaches for managing the issues.
Executive summary
2. The deployment of 1,000 additional police (including 250 community police) and 250 non-sworn staff over three years will contribute to safer communities and enable greater resourcing of intelligence-led crime reduction policing. In the short to medium term the additional police will have consequences for the criminal justice system, mainly through an increased number of prosecutions being taken. This increase will place pressure on existing court and prison capacity.
3. Police have had notable success in reducing crime through a number of measures, and crime reduction is a major theme in the Police Strategic Plan. The crime reduction effect of this focus, and of the additional 250 community police, was considered. [1] However, this effect could not be modelled due to uncertainty of the scale and timing of impact.
4. Police have agreed a deployment strategy with the Minister of Police that will see a high proportion of the additional police based north of Taupo. They will be deployed over a three-year period in fairly equal numbers between response, investigation, and community service types.
5. The deployment of additional police will affect prosecution numbers over the three-year period. It is estimated there will be an additional 11,670 prosecutions, including 1,510 traffic prosecutions, in total over the three-year period. From 2009/10 onwards it is estimated that the number of prosecutions per year will be 6,280 higher than currently. This represents a 5.2 percent increase in prosecutions for non-traffic offences per year after the third year and a 6.4 percent increase in prosecutions in the Auckland area.
6. The increased number of prosecutions will also affect the rest of the justice system. The magnitude of this effect will vary, depending on the particular part of the system. In particular, there will be pressure on the capacity of:
- District Courts north of Taupo;
- prison beds;
- The Community Probation Service (CPS) in the Auckland region; and
- Child, Youth and Family (CYF) to address Police referrals in both the youth justice and the care and protection systems.
7. The services and facilities of the Ministry of Justice and Department of Corrections will need to be expanded to address these pressures. This will include providing, by 2009/10, for:
- four additional District Court judges;
- one High Court judge;
- additional Collections Unit staff;
- 250 additional prison beds (see Paper Ten); and
- two CPS centres and 37 additional probation staff (see Paper Ten).
8. Other agencies will be closely monitoring the effect of the additional police on their operations and will provide advice on capacity issues as they are identified.
9. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Background
10. As part of the Confidence and Supply Agreement with New Zealand First, the Government has agreed to fund an additional 1,000 sworn and 250 non-sworn police over this term. This includes 250 community police pledged by the Government during the 2005 election campaign. Funding has been made available in Budget 2006 for the first tranche of additional police.
11. Budget 2006 provided funding for:
- the first 406 additional police;
- most of the capital requirements for the additional 1,000 sworn police; and
- increased training and recruitment capacity.
12. Budget 2006 did not provide funding for other parts of the system affected by the additional police. An initial estimate of the overall fiscal risk was prepared for the Minister of Finance and those Ministers involved in the "Families, Young and Old" Budget theme.
13. The Minister of Finance included $150 to $200 million as a Specified Fiscal Risk in the Budget 2006 Economic and Fiscal Update. This initial estimate was made before Police made key decisions about deployment. These estimates were also sensitive to changes in key assumptions, particularly any projected increase in prosecutions.
Comment
Context
14. Police has had notable success in reducing crime through a number of measures, and crime reduction is a major theme in the Police Strategic Plan. The crime reduction effect of this focus, and of the addition of 250 community police over the period, has been considered in the development of this paper and is reflected in justice sector financial and non-financial impacts.
15. Additional resources will be made available to implement the Police Crime Reduction Model. The model involves gathering intelligence about the criminal environment to direct Police resources. This will contribute to improved intelligence gathering that enables the causes of criminal behaviour to be directly targeted.
Deployment of additional police
16. Police have agreed a deployment strategy for the additional 1,000 police with the Minister of Police. This strategy will largely determine the effect on other justice sector agencies.
17. The aim of the strategy is to improve community and staff satisfaction by improving the capacity for Police responses and investigation. To achieve this Police intend to:
- ensure it remains able to handle expected growth in demand because of key demographic changes;
- improve the quality of investigation; and
- provide additional reassurance to the public through community policing.
18. Police intend to deploy the new police in four particular service types: response (responding to 111 calls); investigation; community (primarily preventive work); and road (traffic duties). The additional police will be deployed with an emphasis on each of the service types. Each tranche will also have a different emphasis as set out in the table below.
Deployment emphasis
| Tranche | Response | Investigation | Community | Road |
| 1 | 53% | 24% | 10% | 13% |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | 29% | 13% |
| 3 | 10% | 24% | 53% | 13% |
19. The deployment of community police will have an impact on crime prevention. This will be supported by the general Police strategic focus on crime prevention. However, this is likely to have its largest impact later in the three-year period as the weight of community police will be in the third tranche.
20. The first wing of new police will be deployed in January 2007. Further wings will then be deployed at eight-weekly intervals until the first tranche of 333 sworn officers is fully deployed. It is expected that the remaining tranches will be deployed from January 2008 and January 2009.
21. The effect of the 1,000 additional police will largely be determined by where these officers are deployed. To meet existing service delivery shortfalls, three quarters of the first tranche will be deployed north of Taupo. Over half will be deployed in the Auckland area.
22. Other factors will affect the level of prosecutions over this period, including urban drift, demographic change, crime trend change and the effectiveness of various interventions.
The effect on prosecutions
23. An increase in the number of police will have an effect on the number of prosecutions taken, and on the rest of the justice system. The size of this effect may vary, depending on the particular part of the system.
24. The complex inter-relationships within the justice system make it difficult to obtain reliable estimates of the flow-on effects of a significant increase in police staff.[2]
25. The following key assumptions have been used to model the potential effects:
- The additional police do not cause a commensurate increase in the volume of crime reported.
- The volume of crime committed is largely independent of police numbers.
- Response times are reduced and additional resources are available for investigation.
- There is an increase in the likelihood of apprehension.
- There is an increase in resolution rates.
- There is extra capacity for attending to less-serious criminal activity.
- Extra prosecutions will be for less-serious crimes.
- All 1,000 additional police are successfully recruited and trained.
- There is sufficient court capacity to process increased prosecutions.
26. A number of aspects of the deployment have been taken into account. These include:
- the service type and geographic distribution of deployment; and
- the timing and magnitude of additional prosecutions.
Likely effect on prosecutions
27. It is estimated that the deployment will lead to an additional 11,670 prosecutions over the full three-year period, of which 1,510 will be traffic prosecutions. From 2009/10 onwards it is estimated that the number of prosecutions per year will be 6,280 higher than currently. This represents a 5.2 percent increase in prosecutions across the board at a national level for non-traffic offences and a 1.2 percent increase for traffic offences per year after the third year. The deployment of a higher proportion of the additional police to the Auckland area is expected to have a higher effect on non-traffic prosecutions, with a 6.4 percent increase in the third year.
28. The increase in prosecutions will be more pronounced in the first two years. This is largely a result of the focus on response policing.
29. Police deployment north of Taupo, particularly in the Auckland urban area, is likely to increase the number of minor and family violence prosecutions and affect the numbers of referrals from Police to CYF.
30. Overall, the increase in prosecutions is likely to be most pronounced:
- in the Auckland region;
- on less serious offence types that currently have lower clearance rates; and
- in the first two years of the roll-out.
Effects of increased prosecutions on the rest of the justice sector
31. The interdependence of agencies in the criminal justice system means that there will be flow-on effects for the Ministry of Justice (Operations and Collections), the Department of Corrections, CYF and other justice sector agencies. In particular, there will be pressure on the capacity of:
- District Courts north of Taupo;
- prison beds;
- CYF to address Police referrals in both youth justice and the care and protection system; and
- CPS in the Auckland region.
32. The expected effect on each agency is outlined in this section.
Effect on Ministry of Justice (Operations)
33. At present there are significant capacity pressures for courts in the area north of Taupo, particularly in the Auckland region. These pressures align with the areas where a significant proportion of the additional police will be deployed, and where the effect of increased prosecutions will be most apparent. In the Auckland area this is expected to result in increased court waiting times and a backlog of cases.
34. More judges will be needed to hear an increased number of prosecutions. When regional variations are taken into account, the modelling indicates that an additional four District Court judges and one High Court judge will be required, according to the following timetable:
Additional judges to hear increased prosecutions
| 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/9 | 2009/10 | |
| District Court | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| High Court | - | 1 | - | - |
35. It is recommended that one additional District Court judge be appointed in 2006 with funding for associated support. s. 9(2)(f)(iv) This will enable the Ministry of Justice to manage additional capacity pressures in Auckland in 2006/07.
36. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Effect on Ministry of Justice (Collections)
37. A further effect of the additional police is an expected increase in the number of infringement notices issued. It is estimated that a similar proportion of these fines will be passed onto the Collections Unit for enforcement. However, the volume increase that may result from the additional infringement notices is not clear.
38. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Effect on Department of Corrections
39. The Department of Corrections forecast that the effect of additional prosecutions will have consequences for both CPS and Prison Services, as follows:
- an additional 250 prison beds will be required by 2009/10; and
- management of an additional 840 community-based sentences will be needed, along with increased court servicing activities.
40. Decisions required for funding the 250 additional prison beds have been outlined in Paper Ten as part of the broader decision making required with relation to the net affect of the additional 1,000 police and existing capacity pressures.
41. The effect on CPS will be driven by increased court servicing requirements, higher offender numbers, and prisoner post-release conditions. The ongoing operating costs associated with this are $7 million, and a one-off capital cost of $8 million is required.
42. Areas north of Taupo are already under pressure and have little or no capacity to absorb the impact of an additional 1,000 police within existing resources.
43. The lead-time for adding CPS capacity is one to three years, whether to an existing or new site. Currently, there is no published offender forecast for CPS so consideration needs to be given to establishing one and including an operating and volatility buffer.
44. To manage future demand on CPS in 2009/10, an extra 37 probation officers and two new CPS centres will be required. The location of the new CPS centres will be influenced by judicial response to the effect of the additional prosecutions.
Effect on Child Youth and Family Services
45. There are likely to be significant impacts on CYF in two areas: the youth justice system, and the care and protection system.
46. First, all of CYF's youth justice demand is referred by Police. This demand has resource implications for the convening of Youth Justice Family Group Conferences, the implementation of Family Group Conference plans, and residential care placements.
47. Second, CYF provides services to offenders' families. This occurs when Police refer those offenders either apprehended or identified as the result of care and protection concerns.
48. In 2004/05, CYF care and protection intake demand was 25 percent higher than in 2003/04. Police referrals contributed around 70 percent of this increase. Police referrals currently represent 33 percent of CYF care and protection case volumes. Many of these cases are the result of attending domestic violence incidents where children were present.
49. The impact of the additional police on CYF is subject to several variables. These include:
- possible changes in Police practices, especially around the use of diversion in the youth justice system; and
- the volume of referrals to CYF for care and protection.
50. Police operational policy and practice is a more significant driver of the volume of police-generated work coming to CYF than police numbers. Despite this, the extent to which additional police are deployed to youth justice and family violence activities will also have a significant impact.
51. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
52. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
53. Mitigating strategies include the following key policy and operational responses to actively manage demand:
- CYF's Demand Management Action Plan includes working with major notifiers, including Police, at the pre-notification and intake/notification phases.
- The Cabinet Committee on Expenditure and Administration has asked CYF to review its responses to demand, with a focus on demand for care and protection services aimed at obtaining greater efficiencies. CYF is working actively with Police to manage demand.
54. Police and CYF will need to work closely at the national and local level to manage the key risks around family violence and youth justice referrals. This will be especially important in the Auckland region.
Effects on other agencies
Crown Law Office
55. The estimated impact on the Crown Law Office will be a small increase in the number of criminal jury trials, in line with current trends. It is projected that the current backlog of criminal jury trials will delay the financial impacts by up to a year.
56. In addition, the response of the judiciary and courts to a possible increase in the backlog of criminal jury trials may have an impact on the timing of costs incurred by Crown Law in relation to criminal matters.
Legal Services Agency (LSA)
57. All of the LSA's services and costs are demand-driven and flow directly from prosecutions. Extra demand for services as a result of additional prosecutions will result from: additional initial detention requiring access to the Police Detention Legal Assistance scheme; additional appearances requiring access to duty lawyers through the Duty Solicitor Scheme; and additional legal aid applications and payments.
58. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
59. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Financial implications
60. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
| s. 9(2)(f)(iv) | |||||
| s. 9(2)(f)(iv) | |||||
61. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Recommendations
62. It is recommended that the Cabinet Policy Committee:
1. note that the Government agreed to the provision of an additional 1,000 sworn police and 250 non-sworn police as part of the Confidence and Supply Agreement with New Zealand First;
2. note that 333 sworn and 73 non-sworn police were funded in Budget 2006;
3. note that the Minister of Police has agreed a deployment strategy for the additional police, which focuses much of the deployment north of Taupo, and particularly in the Auckland area;
4. note that the estimated effect of the additional police over the three-year period will be an additional 11,670 prosecutions, and from 2009/10 onwards the number of prosecutions per year will be 6,280 higher than currently. This will have an effect on the rest of the justice sector;
5. note that any possible crime reduction from the additional 1,000 police has not been taken into account in the modelling of their effect on the rest of the justice sector as the effect is uncertain;
6. note that the Ministry of Justice estimates the effect of the additional prosecutions on the court system will require an additional four District Court judges and one High Court judge to be provided by 2009/10. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
7. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
8. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
> > Total Capital 1.800 - - - 9. note that the Department of Corrections estimates that the effect of the additional police and related prosecutions on the prison service will require the provision of an additional 250 prison beds by 2009/10;
10. note that the Department of Corrections estimates that the effect of the additional police and related prosecutions on the Community Probation Service (CPS) will require the provision of an additional 37 full-time equivalent staff and two additional CPS centres. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
11. note that Child Youth and Family have indicated that initial funding effects of additional police will be addressed within baselines and that they will monitor the effects of additional police on its business and identify any needs in later Budgets;
12. note that the Crown Law Office will monitor the effects of additional police on its business and identify any needs in later Budgets;
13. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
14. s. 9(2)(f)(iv)
Hon Mark Burton
Minister of Justice
On behalf of:
Hon Michael Cullen, Attorney General
Hon Annette King, Minister of Police
Hon Rick Barker, Minister for Courts
Hon David Benson-Pope, Minister of Social Development and Employment
Hon Damien O'Connor, Minister of Corrections
Footnotes
1. Refer to Appendix B for further discussion of current Police action to reduce crime.
2. The assumptions and methodology used to achieve the estimates are outlined in Appendix A.