Paper 10: Corrections' Capacity
Proposals
1 This paper compares the prison construction that is necessary to meet current and future demand pressures, if Cabinet either:
- agrees that no change be made to existing policy; or
- adopts the package of measures proposed in this suite of papers.
Executive summary
3 The best current estimate is that 9,846 prison beds will be needed by September 2011 in the absence of measures to reduce prisoner numbers. Prison beds are needed to accommodate the forecast 8,956 prisoners. Additional beds are also needed to cover some of the risk that the forecast proves to be too low, and to provide disaster recovery capacity.
4 Based on the current construction and commissioning programme, the Department of Corrections will have 8,938 beds available for planned use in September 2011. This assumes a disaster recovery standard of 600 beds. Planned use of these 600 beds would severely compromise the Department of Corrections' ability to respond quickly and to maintain a safe and secure environment in the event of a physical disaster, the failure of a facility, or a large-scale disruption such as a riot.
5 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
- s.9(2)(f)(iv)
- s.9(2)(f)(iv)
6 A construction programme has been developed under each approach. The first shows the location and timing for the addition of 908 beds under the status quo of no change to existing policy. The second does the same for the additional 428 beds (a reduction of 480) that will be required if the measures proposed in this suite of papers are adopted.
7 If Ministers agree to the measures proposed in this suite of papers, some funding decisions are required now. This funding is required to ensure that initiatives, such as the expansion of home detention, increased prisoner employment, and rehabilitative programmes commence in time to have the impact on prisoner numbers on which construction planning has been based.
8 Prisons have operated under significant pressure during 2005 and 2006, with substantial use of disaster recovery capacity and police and court cells. s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Background
9 In December 2005, based on the then Prisoner Forecast to 2010 which did not include the effect of 1,000 additional police, Ministers agreed to maximising home detention and electronic monitoring as a condition of bail by April 2007, and to building 180 permanent capacity beds and 100 disaster recovery beds on existing sites and 25 percent planned use of Corrections' disaster recovery standard capacity in 2007. s.9(2)(f)(iv) This was included in the 2006 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update as a quantified Specific Fiscal Risk (together with the replacement of Mt Eden Prison) if no further changes to prisoner number forecasts occur.
10 In Budget 2006 Cabinet noted "that Corrections is due to reconsider and report back on the issues of future capacity in June 2006 and that decisions on expanding Corrections capacity may have to be considered between budgets, subject to the June 2006 report back on issues such as prisoner forecasts, the flow on effects of extra police, and the impact of the Effective Interventions project" [ s.9(2)(f)(iv)].
Comment
Forecast requirements for prison beds
11 As outlined in Paper One, current projections are for 7,758 prisoners in September 2007, 8,602 in September 2009, and 8,956 in September 2011.
12 Additional beds are needed to separately accommodate prisoners of different gender, age, security classification, and segregation status. Based on a moderate risk approach, an operating buffer of four percent is added to monthly projections of prisoner numbers. This buffer rises from 316 in September 2007 to 360 in September 2011.
13 Given the long lead-times needed for building prison accommodation, planning must also take into account the risk of prisoner number forecasts underestimating future requirements. Based on a moderate risk approach, a forecast volatility buffer is used in planning future accommodation requirements.[1]
14 Taking into account operating and forecast volatility buffers, the best current estimates are that 9,474 beds will be required in September 2009, and 9,846 in September 2011.
Disaster recovery beds and constraints on their use
15 Prison beds fall into three categories:
- permanent - beds available for regular use, for which funding is in baselines;
- supplementary disaster recovery - lower-quality beds to be used permanently, for which funding is required in baselines on an ongoing basis; and
- standard disaster recovery - lower-quality beds held in reserve to enable Corrections to respond to emergencies such as the loss of beds due to fire, for which funding is required as they are used.
16 The availability of disaster recovery beds for planned use is subject to two constraints: agreements as to the appropriate standard for the number of disaster recovery beds kept for use in emergencies, and union agreement.
17 The planned use of disaster recovery capacity creates significant service delivery risks, requires some compromise to standards, and places an increased strain on the prison infrastructure that supports existing facilities. In general, prison infrastructure is not designed to cater for the additional prisoners resulting from the continued use of disaster recovery beds. The additional prisoner numbers can lead to over-crowding, inappropriate mixing, and inadequate levels of privacy, visits, time out of cells, recreation, and prisoner activity. They also exacerbate existing staff problems including excessive overtime, unused leave and insufficient time for training.
18 Further, the Department of Corrections' ability to respond quickly and maintain a safe and secure environment in the event of a physical disaster, the failure of a facility, or a large-scale disruption (a riot for example) would be severely compromised. Continuing planned use of significant disaster recovery capacity undermines the risk mitigation principles on which this capacity is based.
19 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
20 s.9(2)(j)
The number of prison beds required to 2011
21 Based on the current construction and commissioning programme, the Department of Corrections will have, by mid-2008, 8,690 regular and 848 disaster recovery beds available for planned use. After applying the 2008 disaster recovery standard of 500, there will be 9,038 beds (8,690 plus 348) available for planned use by September 2008, and 8,938 (8,690 plus 248) by September 2009 and in out-years when the disaster recovery standard increases to 600.
22 In the absence of some combination of further prison construction or measures to reduce the prisoner population, all available beds could be used by 2011. This would create a very serious situation for the Department of Corrections, Police, and Ministry of Justice (Operations). The graph below shows:
- The beds based on the current construction and commissioning programme (the columns): permanent beds at the bottom, then supplementary disaster recovery beds and standard recovery beds, with police and court cells at the top
- The beds required if actual bed numbers reflect the Ministry of Justice forecasts, including the operating buffer (the line through the graph): In this case 9,316 beds would be required in September 2011 to accommodate the average number of prisoners projected for that month (8,956) plus the operating buffer (360). Most disaster recovery beds would be in use, leaving the Department of Corrections at serious risk in the event of any major emergency
- The forecast volatility buffer (the shaded area on either side of the line): If, in September 2011, the current forecast underestimated actual prisoner numbers by 530, all available beds including police and court cells would be occupied, leaving both the Department of Corrections, Police and Ministry of Justice (Operations) in positions of extreme risk. Underestimates of this magnitude or greater have occurred on several occasions in the recent past.
s.9(2)(f)(iv)
23 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | |||
24 There are two alternatives to address the shortfall within this timeframe:
- substantial further prison construction under the status quo (no changes to policy); or
- a combination of reduced prison construction and the adoption of the proposals identified in this suite of papers as reducing the prison population within this timeframe (i.e. before 2011); situational crime prevention, remand in custody, restorative justice, community sentences, home detention, and prisoner rehabilitation and employment. Of these, home detention would have the largest effect.
Status Quo
Proposed prison bed construction programme
s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | |||||||||
26 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
27 The construction programme includes the costs of the beds and the supporting infrastructure. The cost of infrastructure has been assessed on a site by site basis to determine the facilities required as a direct consequence of constructing additional beds on those sites.
28 s.9(2)(g)(i) A fast-track approach entails procurement and other risks, and is therefore only justifiable in very difficult circumstances. Under a fast-track approach, the Department of Corrections would obtain independent advice from quantity surveyors on price to ensure the price is reasonable.
29 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Financial implications\\
s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | ||||||
The proposals
Proposed prison bed construction programme
31 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | |||||||||
32 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
33 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Financial implications
The marginal cost to Vote: Corrections of adopting the measures proposed in this suite of papers, together with costs resulting from the 1,000 additional police, is set out in the two tables below by decision date (July 2006 (now), Budget 2007, and Budget 2008). s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Financial Implications - operating costs
|
$m - increase/(decrease) |
||||||
| Vote: Corrections | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | Total |
| July 2006 Decision | ||||||
| Planned ongoing use of disaster recovery beds | 5.411 | 15.338 | 14.356 | 13.495 | 11.213 | 59.813 |
| Impact of additional 1000 police CPS | 3.500 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 31.500 |
| Expansion of home detention | 5.794 | 15.234 | 13.614 | 13.614 | 13.614 | 61.870 |
| Reduce recidivism through increased prisoner employment | 3.157 | 7.012 | 8.493 | 9.056 | 9.056 | 36.774 |
| Reduce recidivism through increased rehabilitative programmes | 0.235 | 1.921 | 4.071 | 4.921 | 4.921 | 16.069 |
| Less self-funding | (2.560) | (2.560) | (2.560) | (2.560) | (2.560) | (12.800) |
| Total July 2006 Operating | 15.537 | 43.945 | 44.974 | 45.526 | 43.244 | 193.226 |
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | ||||||
Financial Implications - capital costs
|
$m - increase/(decrease) |
||||||
| Vote: Corrections | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | Total |
| July 2006 Decision | ||||||
| Impact of additional 1,000 police on CPS | 8.000 | - | - | - | - | 8.000 |
| Expansion of home detention | 9.200 | 8.000 | - | - | - | 17.200 |
| Reduce recidivism through increased prisoner employment | 5.000 | 4.000 | 3.500 | - | - | 12.500 |
| Reduce recidivism through increased rehabilitative programmes | 2.400 | 4.800 | 2.400 | - | - | 9.600 |
| Less phasing of self-funding | 16.000 | (4.000) | (11.000) | (48.300) | - | (47.300) |
| Total July 2006 Capital | 40.600 | 12.800 | (5.100) | (48.300) | ||
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | ||||||
35 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | |
36 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Self-Funding
37 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
38 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Residual risks and risk management
39There are a number of residual risks which apply irrespective of whether the status quo continues or the measures proposed in this suite of papers are accepted, and which could result in insufficient capacity to accommodate prisoners:
- s.9(2)(j)(i)
- It is uncertain whether the expansion of the existing home detention regime and introduction of electronic monitoring as a condition of bail, approved in December 2005, will have the required effect of reducing the prisoner forecast by 180 in April 2007.
- The sector's ability to manage a sustained period of planning to operate at full justice sector capacity to September 2006 has been tested during 2005 and clearly entails risks to operational performance.
- Longer-term planned use of disaster recovery capacity creates significant risks. Capacity may be unavailable in the event of a physical disaster or large-scale disruption. X s.9(2)(g)(i) X X
- The continued use of court cells cannot be guaranteed. There have been recent challenges litigated through the Employment Relations Authority due to less than optimal accommodation in court cells and disputes around the maximum capacity of prison sites.
- The use of police cells (designed for short-term stays) to accommodate long-term remand and/or sentenced prisoners exposes the Crown to civil liability for breach of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 or Human Rights Act 1993, and to criticism that New Zealand is failing to comply with its international obligations as a signatory to various human rights treaties. There are also significant operational risks for Police when there is substantial use of police cells for Department of Corrections' prisoners.
40
s.9(2)(j)
Recommendations
41 It is recommended that Cabinet Policy Committee:
1 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
2 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
3 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
4 note that if the measures proposed in this suite of papers are agreed, the number of further prison beds required before September 2011 will reduce by 480 to 428;
5 note that if the measures proposed in this suite of papers are agreed, the capital cost of building 428 beds would be $218 million, and the marginal operating costs would be $39 million per year (when fully operational). This recommendation excludes the costs of the measures and includes construction and operating costs for prison only;
6 note that if the measures proposed in this suite of papers are accepted, funding approval for some elements of the proposals are required now so that planned reductions in prisoner numbers occur sufficiently early to be managed under the proposed prison construction programme;
7 note that if any of the residual risks relating to an insufficient capacity to accommodate prisoners, urgent consideration will need to be given to the requirement of further police cells in addition to the maximum of 175 currently made available by Police;
8 s.9(2)(j)
9 agree to funding changes for disaster recovery utilisation and the impact of the additional 1,000 police on the Community Probation Service as follows:
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) | ||||||
10 X s.9(2)(f)(iv)
| s.9(2)(f)(iv) |
$m - increase/(decrease) |
|||||
11 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
12 note that funding for disaster recovery standard utilisation will be sought on an annual basis in each Budget round if required, and that the changes to appropriations are to be funded from the Operating and Capital Contingencies;
13 note that as a result the projected net asset position of Vote: Corrections will increase by the amount of the capital injection;
14 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
15 note that these additional injections/withdrawals are fiscally neutral over the forecast period but the debt track will be impacted when capital injections are required, with a corresponding benefit when capital is returned;
16 note that the opportunity cost of funding these cost pressures off the Department of Correction's balance sheet is that this amount will not be available for other fiscal risks. Additional funding may therefore be sought at a later date to address other capital projects.
If the measures proposed in this suite of papers are adopted:
17 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
18 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
If the measures proposed in this suite of papers are not adopted
19 s.9(2)(f)(iv)
Hon Mark Burton
Minister of Justice
On behalf of:
Hon Annette King, Minister of Police
Hon Damien O'Connor, Minister of Corrections
1 The buffer starts at zero at the time the forecast is made, and increases to 530 beds two years later, based on analysis of actual historic volatility on the MoJ Prisoner Forecasts for 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003.