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This forecast was prepared by the Ministry of Justice in collaboration with representatives from across the sector, including: 


Justice sector forecast 2011-2021

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Justice Sector Forecast 2011-2021 - Projections for New Zealand prison population, community sentences, legal aid, fines, Crown Law.

This report sets out the base case results from the Justice Sector Forecast for the period 2011-2021, along with a range of scenario analyses.

The forecast represents a key instrument for strategic planning within the justice sector. It includes forecasts of:

  • Numbers of District Court jury and committal cases, and District Court summary cases.
  • Numbers of grants, average costs, expenditure and debt recovery for legal aid in the criminal, family and civil jurisdictions as well as forecasts of expenditure on Waitangi Tribunal claims, Duty Solicitor scheme and Police Detention Legal Aid scheme.
  • Impositions, receipts and remittals of monetary penalties in police-prosecuted cases in the criminal court.
  • Number of pre-sentence reports (oral and written) provided to courts by probation officers.
  • Number of offenders starting community sentences, and of the number of offenders subject to these sentences (the muster) at any one time.  The community sentences included are those overseen by the Community Probation Service (CPS): Community Work, Supervision, Intensive Supervision, Community Detention and Home Detention.
  • Number of offenders starting CPS-supervised orders, and of the number of offenders subject to these sentences (the muster) at any one time.  The orders included are: Post-detention Conditions, Extended Supervision, Parole, Life Parole and Release on Conditions.
  • CPS Provision of Information requirements.  The measures included are: Court Servicing hours, Pre-release enquiries, Home Leave reports and Parole Condition Progress reports.
  • Prison population, including separate forecasts of remand and sentenced populations.

Available documents

Justice Sector Forecast 2011-2021 full report (PDF, 1.5 MB) (Word, 2 MB)