Appendix I: Factors influencing the 'no sentence' options
Just under 5% of offenders in 1995 received no sentence as a result of their proved case. That is, they were convicted and discharged, discharged without conviction or admonished in the Youth Court.
A summary of the statistical factors that influence the probability of receiving no sentence are presented here (Table I.1) to assist in the interpretation of results in the main part of this report on sentencing. For example, the results for 'no sentence' options help explain the findings that youth offenders (aged under 17) have a relatively low probability of all sentences and that female offenders have a relatively low probability of receiving a monetary penalty.
The factors that increase the relative probability of receiving no sentence are:
- a low seriousness offence (seriousness score of 20 or less, especially disorder offences)
- one or a small number of charges in the current case
- a young offender (aged under 17) or an offender aged 30 or more
- a female offender
- an offence against justice
Conversely, factors that decrease the relative probability of receiving no sentence are:
- a traffic offence (imprisonable traffic offences commonly result in a driving disqualification even if no other sentence is imposed)
- a drug offence or serious offence against the person
- a Māori offender
- a previous periodic detention or community service sentence
- a previous offending history.
Table 1.1: Logistic regression model for 'no sentence' options, 1995
|
Variable |
Category |
Odds ratio |
Chi-square |
P |
Rank |
|
Current seriousness |
>1-20 |
1.135 |
5.6 |
0.0177 |
29 |
|
|
>20-180 |
0.617 |
50.5 |
0.0001 |
12 |
|
|
>180-365 |
0.534 |
10.2 |
0.0014 |
23 |
|
|
>365 |
0.386 |
17.3 |
0.0001 |
18 |
|
Current charges |
2-4 |
0.444 |
325.9 |
0.0001 |
2 |
|
|
5+ |
0.197 |
188.2 |
0.0001 |
6 |
|
Current offence |
Serious against person |
0.585 |
15.1 |
0.0001 |
19 |
|
|
Domestic violence |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Minor against person |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Drugs |
0.585 |
63.1 |
0.0001 |
9 |
|
|
Breach pd |
2.880 |
264.7 |
0.0001 |
4 |
|
|
Other against justice |
3.844 |
325.2 |
0.0001 |
3 |
|
|
Disorder/other |
2.141 |
231.3 |
0.0001 |
5 |
|
|
Traffic |
0.032 |
914.9 |
0.0001 |
1 |
|
Plea |
Guilty |
0.610 |
89.3 |
0.0001 |
8 |
|
Gender |
Female |
1.391 |
53.0 |
0.0001 |
11 |
|
Age group |
<17 |
3.937 |
132.9 |
0.0001 |
7 |
|
|
17-19 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
30+ |
1.363 |
62.3 |
0.0001 |
10 |
|
Ethnicity |
Māori |
0.877 |
12.8 |
0.0004 |
21 |
|
|
Pacific |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Most recent sentence |
Prison |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Periodic detention |
0.781 |
21.8 |
0.0001 |
16 |
|
|
Comm. programme |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Comm. service |
0.797 |
6.6 |
0.0100 |
26 |
|
|
Supervision |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Previous sentence |
Prison |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Periodic detention |
0.848 |
7.2 |
0.0072 |
25 |
|
|
Comm. programme |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Comm. service |
0.887 |
4.8 |
0.0288 |
31 |
|
|
Supervision |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Previous offence |
Breach cbs |
1.149 |
5.8 |
0.0161 |
27 |
|
Previous proved cases |
1-3 |
0.698 |
37.2 |
0.0001 |
14 |
|
|
4-10 |
0.628 |
40.5 |
0.0001 |
13 |
|
|
11+ |
0.734 |
12.0 |
0.0005 |
22 |
|
Previous seriousness |
>10-60 |
0.741 |
27.9 |
0.0001 |
15 |
|
|
>60-180 |
0.744 |
21.4 |
0.0001 |
17 |
|
|
>180 |
0.854 |
4.8 |
0.0282 |
30 |
|
Time since previous case |
1 month or less |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
>1 month-1 year |
0.828 |
14.6 |
0.0001 |
20 |
|
|
>1-4 years |
0.855 |
8.8 |
0.0029 |
24 |
|
Rate of conviction |
2-8 charges per year |
0.899 |
5.8 |
0.0163 |
28 |
|
|
>8 charges per year |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Note: An odds ratio of >1.0 indicates a high relative risk (i.e. more likely to receive this sentence than the reference group). The most significant variable (highest Wald Chi-square, lowest probability P), is rank '1'.
