Foreword
The Ministry undertakes research and evaluation on sentencing, so that future policy decisions can be underpinned by relevant information.
The research presented in this report examines for the first time the combined effects of a wide range of statistically-measurable factors on sentencing decisions. The factors included in this analysis range from the type and seriousness of the major offence committed, to the number of charges proved, the plea, and the demographic and previous criminal history characteristics of the offender.
Previous research by the Ministry of Justice has shown that very substantial changes have occurred in sentencing over the past two decades, especially following legislative changes, eg: a very substantial increase in the use of community-based sentences but in the past has been unclear what the real drivers in the changes were - the changed legislation or other factors.
The present research uses sophisticated statistical techniques to give a better understanding of the trends in sentencing that followed the implementation of the various legislative changes. Changes due to trends in statistical factors were separated from changes due to sentencing practice. For the most serious of the violent offences and offenders, the relative imprisonment rate has remained much the same between 1983 and 1995, and sentence lengths have increased. For the less serious offences and offenders, this report shows that there has been a decrease in the relative rate of imprisonment, but a far larger increase in the use of community-based sentences.
Colin Keating
Secretary for Justice
