The Ministry of Justice - Te Tahū o te Ture, in collaboration with the Department of Corrections – Ara Poutama Aotearoa, New Zealand Police, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office has released its latest projections for New Zealand’s prison population over the next 10 years.
The projections, evaluate long-term trends to estimate what may occur in the criminal justice system, helping to inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
This year’s report projects the prison population will increase by 36 percent from 10,488 in February 2025 to 14,230 in June 2035.
The projected increase in total prison population is driven by an increase in both the remand and sentenced populations. The sentenced population is projected to increase rapidly until June 2028 then gradually increase to 7,705 in June 2035. Unlike to the sentenced population, the number of those on remand is projected to increase consistently from 4,693 in February 2025 to 6,525 in June 2035.
Ministry of Justice Sector Insights General Manager Rebecca Parish says the sentenced population is projected to grow as a result of new policy settings, such as the Sentencing Reform Act and the reinstatement of the Three Strikes law.
The impacts of these new policy settings were signalled last year, but only included this year as law was finalised and enacted.
“The new policy settings are expected to see more offenders receive prison sentences and for those sentences to be longer,” Ms Parish says.
The increase in the remand population is expected to be driven by a higher number of serious offenders coming before the courts and the higher rates of remand that will result.
Those remanded have been spending longer in remand due to their case taking longer to go through the courts.
Multiple initiatives are underway to improve timely access to justice. These aim to reduce the average time taken to resolve a case and ultimately reduce the average time spent in custodial remand. Current modelling suggests that the 90 percent standard for timely access to justice can be achieved by June 2027.
“Several initiatives are already in place to improve access to justice, including the Timely Justice Action Plan – a consolidated programme of initiatives across Police, the Ministry of Justice, Department of Corrections, and the judiciary,” Ms Parish says.
The full report can be found here: Justice sector projections | New Zealand Ministry of Justice
For more information, contact media@justice.govt.nz