The Ministry of Justice, in collaboration with justice sector agencies, has released its projections for New Zealand’s prison population over the next 10 years.
As at the end of November 2021, the total prison population was 7,850, the lowest it’s been since 2008.
Without further system changes the total prison population is expected to rise slightly to 8,000 by June 2031. This projection is substantially lower than the 10-year prison population projection of 14,400 made in 2017.
As at November 2021, the sentenced prison population was 4,900 which was the lowest it has been since early 2003 and it is projected to continue to decrease.
The custodial remand population has decreased from 4,000 in 2020 to 2,900 as at November 2021 due to fewer people in court being remanded in custody. This lower level is projected to be sustained in the short term.
The reduction in the prison population has happened within a context of a highly cooperative justice sector and a greater focus on therapeutic approaches.
However, the remand population is projected to grow in the long-term, and it will drive an increase in the total prison population if not addressed.
“The remand population is projected to grow in the long-term as people spend longer in remand. This is due in part to cases taking longer to be resolved in court as defendants continue to plead guilty later in the court process.” says Ministry of Justice General Manager for Sector Insights, Anton Youngman.
“Delays across the court system have been exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions. Addressing these delays remains a continued focus of the justice sector. A number of initiatives are in place and additional initiatives are being developed.”
For example, the High Impact Innovation Programme’s Bail Support Services pilot supports people applying for bail and adhering to bail conditions. There has also been an increase in the number of judges through both Budget-19 and the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund, which will speed up the progress of cases through the courts.
Other initiatives being developed to address delays in courts include the cross-sector Criminal Process Improvement Programme, established with the judiciary to look at better ways of working within the court system and improve timely access to justice.
“Initiatives still in development have not yet been factored into this report but will be included in future projections”.
“Projecting long-term trends across the justice sector is challenging. These projections represent only one possible future, and not the future. It’s essential that we understand what will happen under current settings so we can use it as a baseline to measure the success of future changes.”
Justice sector agencies have also developed strategies to reduce reoffending and improve people’s experience across the justice system. Successful delivery of these transformative change strategies will significantly, and positively, impact these projections.
Read the full report here.
For more information contact: media@justice.govt.nz