New Zealanders are warned of scam text messages currently circulating that claim to be from the Ministry of Justice about overdue traffic fines. The Ministry does not include any links in our texts. Read more about Texts from Ministry of Justice
The Ministry of Justice, together with Justice sector partners including the Department of Corrections and NZ Police, has published its latest projections for New Zealand’s criminal justice system over the coming decade.
The projections evaluate long-term trends to estimate what may occur in the criminal justice system, helping to inform investment, planning and policy decisions.
This year’s report projects that if nothing else changes the prison population will increase by 35 percent from 11,240 in February 2026 to 15,200 in June 2036.
While the number of overall cases entering the courts is expected to decrease by 4 percent over the next 10 years, more serious cases are projected to increase by 5 percent, primarily due to new policy.
“The justice sector is facing some pressure, with both the remand and sentenced prison populations expected to grow,” says Rebecca Parish, General Manager of Justice Sector Insights.
“This reflects the impact of recent legislative reforms, including the Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Act and the Crimes Amendment Bill, which mean more people will receive prison sentences, and for longer terms.”
The remand population is projected to increase by approximately 2,200 people (48 percent) to reach 6,900 by 2036. Although the rate of increase slowed over the past year, time spent in remand remains a factor.
“Timely access to justice continues to be a priority, with initiatives helping to stabilise remand times in the short term,” Ms Parish says.
The sentenced population is also expected to increase by around 1,700 people (26 percent) to 8,300 in 2036, due to changes in sentencing policy.
“These projections are vital for informing future resourcing and capacity planning across the justice sector, helping us to anticipate and address the challenges ahead,” Ms Parish says.