Justice Sector Long-Term Insights Briefing

What is a Long-term Insights Briefing?

Long-term Insights Briefings (LTIBs) are a new government initiative requiring agencies to develop and share insights on the trends, risks and opportunities that affect, or may affect, Aotearoa New Zealand.

Under the Public Service Act 2020, chief executives of government departments are required to publish a briefing at least once every three years. However, Long-term Insights Briefings are not government policy. They are intended to help us think about the future and what will matter most for the long-term wellbeing of New Zealanders.

For more information about the overall process, please visit the LTIB guidance webpage(external link).

The Justice Sector Long-term Insights Briefing

The topic for the first Justice Sector Briefing is: Long-term insights about imprisonment 1960-2050.

The topic was chosen by the Justice Sector Leadership Board(external link)(made up of the leaders of the public sector justice agencies) after public consultation.

Ara Poutama Aotearoa; Ministry of Justice; Oranga Tamariki; the Serious Fraud Office and Crown Law, with the New Zealand Police, collaborated on the justice sector LTIB.

Ināia Tonu Nei(external link)a hui, a kaupapa and an independent collective of Māori policy experts and kaitiaki who have a Mana Ōrite relationship with the Justice Sector Leadership Board, worked alongside the justice agencies throughout the process.

The Briefing uses data and insights from the past 60 years to identify what has been driving changes in imprisonment and in the prison population. It also explores the factors that help keep people out of prison and what this might tell us about future opportunities and risks.

The main considerations were:

  • How and why has the prison population changed?
  • What has been tried to keep people out of prison?
  • What are the future risks and opportunities?

This is an opportunity for some important new analysis of historic trends across the prison system.

The Briefing then looks at what could happen to the prison population from 2030-2050, based on these long-term trends, and explores potential ways for the justice system to respond.

While other research has looked into specific areas of change at particular times, this Briefing brings justice agencies together to look systematically across the sector over a 60-year period and gain new insights to inform how we work together.

The Briefing was tabled in Parliament and will be available as a public resource and evidence base to help improve our justice system.

You can read the Long-term Insights Briefing here [PDF, 7.6 MB].

You can read the Ināia Tonu Nei(external link) report on their contribution to the justice sector Long-term Insights Briefing here(external link).

What you told us

Public input was important to ensure we reflected the views of the community in the Briefing. We undertook public surveys and consulted with a wide range of experts on both the proposed topic for the Justice Sector LTIB and the draft Briefing document.

You can read the results of the public surveys on the topic for the Briefing here [PDF, 821 KB].

You can read the results of the public surveys on the draft of the Briefing here [PDF, 2.9 MB].

Thank you to the more than 2,800 New Zealanders who took the time to provide their views. Your contribution was valuable to ensure we captured a range of voices and views on imprisonment in New Zealand.